Monday, 27 June 2016

I was going to keep my gob shut but ....

The wine has been drawn and now must be drunk. We are where we are- for good or evil.#

 Frankly I'm not happy. OK we've a few years before the major ramifications of the out  become apparent- though the immediate one of the pound falling through the floor is enough to be going on with.
I voted to remain for the following reasons
 1/. Stability- in a world that is in thrall to the "markets"   like it or not(and I don't) stability is EVERYTHING. It is not nice but its the truth.
2/. None of the emotional outie arguments convinced me and some of them were downright nasty. UKIP are a bunch of almost fascists I was sickened by that awful poster. I would not want to be associated -even by implication- with a bunch who could come up with that.
3/. Though the remain campaign was only marginally better of itself I refer  you to clause 1 above.
 4/. The ramifications of an out vote were simply awful- break up of the UK being only the most obvious. Why would you choose  to make you life harder.
5/. I export to the EU and can remember doing it before the single market- when the parperwork was onerous and time consuming- now it isn't but it may be again  or may not we don't know.
6/. The outies had no plan. With the possible exception of Michael Gove they were and are a bunch of amoral opportunists. Boris for PM Gawd 'elp us.
 Now I'm aware that there were plenty of  reasonable people who voted out BUT and its  big but  that is not how the campaign played out. ALL of the various Vox Pops on the many news bulletins   showed that the "outie in the street" so to speak was ONLY concerned about immigration. This ranged from genuine worry to plenty of knee jerk bigotry and attitudes I hoped had died last century.
 Without suggesting that all the outies are bigots it WAS the bigot vote that swung it.
 These same bigots are now smug and even more unpleasant(Farage again)
7/. The issue if Sovereignty in today's global world is just eyewash- a non -issue for little Englanders to get steamed about when reading their Daily Mail. Why- I refer you to point 1. The Markets rule

However were are where we are and must live with this. I'd be happier if the outies had had a plan before they got us where we are now.


44 comments:

  1. I was amazed at the number of comments and views I got when I raised my head above the parapet... my missus voted out... two days ago she said to me she wished she hadn't having seen what's happened even in the short time since.... for the record I was an "innie" mostly because of your #1, but also because I consider myself to be European, and lastly/least, because Boris and Nigel are such knobs....

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    1. Steve- much the same view as me then. I actually became more on an "innie" during the campaign- thought I was in to start with - simply because of the nasty narrow-minded xenophobia that was so evident with parts of the out campaign. I honestly thought better of my countrymen. It is a sad state of affairs to realise that there are still so many ill-informed bigots out there in this day and age. I'd even go so far as to say that in some form i've become a "one-world" advocate as nationalities, nation states and all that twaddle get in the way of rational thought.
      and the outies STILL don't have a bloody clue as to what they are to do....

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  2. Hello Andy, I agree with your assessment one hundred per cent. I voted 'Remain' as I believed the case for withdrawal from the EU was unconvincing. Sadly, this point of view has not prevailed and we are now in a period of considerable uncertainty. Nevertheless, we have now 'made the bed so we must now lie on it'. I just wish the UK government gets it's act together, and quickly, in order to minimise the potential damage to society

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  3. Hello Dave- Thec whole campaign had been very divisive- quite why Cameron had the referendum in the first place when he wasn't back to the wall with a knife at his throat is beyond me. There will now be blue Tory Blood all over the carpet - mixing with lots of Labour blood and all to no avail cos both sides were more intrested in Party than country- normal behaviour for them then.
    Wunch of Bankers.....

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  4. I honestly think (keeping an ear out to conversations at work) that many people voted out to punish the government never thinking we would actually leave. I also think a lot of people are regretting that now.

    Never mind, I hear that Boris will be including Baldrick in his new cabinet as apparently he has a cunning plan...

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  5. Andy, don't always agree with you when you venture into politics but in this case I reckon you're spot on. Cameron promised a referendum in the 2015 election campaign for cynical short-term gain (temporarily mending the internal split in the Tory party and preventing a major leakage to UKIP), thus gambling all our futures for his personal political future. Now his gamble has backfired. I fear for the future of our society - the country is now in the hands of the hard right.

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  6. It has to be said though, whichever way one might have voted, surely any Englishman would have wished that at the sight of millionaire Bob Geldof goading British fishermen that HMS Belfast would have given him a full broadside. This uniting thought gives me hope that ultimately all Englishmen believe in the right thing. :-)

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  7. Often read your blog with interest, don't always agree. But we can be as one on this matter. The braggadocio leavers presently seem to only be the one's who don't really understand what is going to happen next, the rest are getting increasingly nervous and regretful of what they've done. Sure the racists are ecstatic, but if we're totally fair they probably represent less people than the remainers have liked immediately to assume.

    Either way we're most likely stuffed. I for one am gutted...

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  8. A referendum itself is fine, everyone I know took their responsibility seriously and agonised over what to do, but were frustrated by the lack of 'real' information, as political games were played out, our politicians have seriously let us down - regardless of the outcome, the issue of lack of preparedness is almost an embarrassment on such an important issue.

    sadly over the next few days, the media will seek sensational headlines and too many in power will be too busy dealing with personal agendas and opportunities that have fallen out of the result. We desperately need to see some re-assurance and leadership, but our media and politicians at this point in time don't seem up to the task.

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  9. Thanks for your comments chaps- Another thought occoured this morning when I saw another vox pop package from Wigan- These old labour Dudes are a funny sort of right wing socialist- very nationalistic..... does that make them National Socialists .....(I leave it to you Oh perspicacious readers to decide how far my tongue was in my cheek when I thought of that one ....
    What amazed me was that there was a good bit of hard info out there the CBI the IMF the Bank of England and many other all said DON'T LEAVE or this will happen- which is what is happening but I'm convinced that a sizable number of voters deliberatly went against such advice because it was coming from people they perceive as some kind of class enemy- as has been said for "revenjge" against the government.
    Well here looking forward to lots of rising prices and low growth for the next decade or so together with more hate crime and general nastiness.
    ENJOY!

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  10. Can you wargamers, just take a breath for a minute and think through what you are saying.
    1]
    Cameron was pressured into making a referendum promise to head off mass defections to the UKIP prior to the election, self serving and dangerous, but he was very confident that he would be able to come back to the UK with a 'new deal'which he could sell to the electorate.
    Well that didnt happen. Why? because of the people who actually run the EU. All they had to supply was a reasonable series of proposals that could be sold to a lot of very frightened people in this country.
    The referendum was supposed to be about voting on the deal that had been negotiated, well that never happened did it? because there was no wonderful deal.
    2] So instead the remainers, using the tactics that had worked in Scotland attempted to frighten the electorate with dire financial ruin and of course World War, and a crippling budget.
    3] Was there any attempt to explain what wonderful benefits the last 40 years of the EU had brought to the UK, NO, not one, and frankly I don't think the remainers could supply a cogent argument, because they couldnt find any. What had originally been sold to the UK as a massive market had been one vast LIE.From the outset it had always been about a Federal superstate, and as amateur historians we should know what happened to the other attempts at this.
    4] As for the Brexit campaign, I took the trouble to listen to both sides, as much as possible. Where we had fear and threats and the cry of racism on one side, on the other was an alternative and dare I say it a offer of hope of another type of future. Was I lied to? probably, but frankly I never believed any of the guff about the 350 million etc, because NO ONE could supply accurate figures, because the EU has become this bureaucratic monster that eats up resources like there is no tomorrow.
    5]
    So onto this cry of racism. Reasoned argument has been drowned in the screams and cries from a lot of people who you would hope should no better.The people of the United Kingdom are in the main a very tolerant people, but they also know when someone is taking the piss. To sell the 2.1 million EU migrants and the 1.3 million non EU migrants as somehow a wonderful thing, bringing a vibrant and very diverse community to this country would be fine, IF someone had actually taken the time to PLAN for this influx and supply MORE schools, surgeries, social services and of course housing to make modern life palatable, but they couldnt because of totally free movement.Even the mention that this huge increase in population had placed pressure on all our services was howled down by Jimmy Crankie as RACIST and too complex to be solved by leaving the EU, so there could never be a reasoned argument.Am I racist? In your eyes, probably. But would I ignore a person of a different skin colour who needed help, No, so perhaps I am just a human being who thinks we should be the masters of our own destiny.
    6] Finally, can I say what the future holds? Of course not, but staying in the EU, I could clearly see where things were heading and frankly not in a good way. As a vast social experiment it has failed, and there are very clear fractures starting to show in all the member states. I have very recently returned from Munich, the heartland of the EU. I was shocked because the city centre looked like the centre of Dewsbury and Blackburn, which I can assure you is not a good thing, and it was obvious from the rallies taking place there that things are changing and not for the better.I am old enough to have voted in all three referendums, twice I voted to join the Common Market, and now I have voted to leave a huge bureaucratic self serving monster.
    So berate me and scream at me, but I would do exactly the same again.

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    1. Robbie Ever since I've known you You have been - politically speaking much more Right wing than I .- As most Coppers are. You dislike and distrust the media. I have NEVER called you racist and I object to that slur. However there is no arguing that some outies ARE racists- look at the increase in reported hate crime since the result. Is that "reasoned argument". Look at the Vox pops from you hated media - I assume you think they made it all up to spite you.
      That there was a massive lack of planning under Blair- who actually waived EU rules that did exist- is self evident and that the EU is far from perfect is also self-evident
      BUT the outies had no viable alternative economic plan. I can't eat hope. Hope won't pay the mortgage. You can afford the possibility of hope . I can't. And of course none of the outies told us what hope actually was. We have already seen some of the economic warnings come true- what price ephemeral hope? . Come back in 10 years-if I don't starve to death first !
      "Masters of our own Destiny"- sorry not in today's world that is just emotional hyperbole. Destiny is for China and America For a terrible moment I thought you were going to use bad language there and say "patriotism" but I doubt you are that much of a scoundrel!!.

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    2. Andy,
      I am constantly amazed by the media, Politicians, pundits and basically everyone about how they know what people are and how they think. Clearly you are no different, but then why should you BE.
      Just a quick biography, born in a council house, went to a good comprehensive school where I frittered away a great education, and left with little in the way of qualifications. At 20 years of age, I had a wife and young child and absolutely no money, so what did I do, I got a job working in a brickyard, and boy was that an experience for a naive, left leaning longhaired youf, but because I was the nearest thing to an expendable student I was shop steward, yes thats right, I was a Union rep!and what a soul destroying experience that was, because I never saw such a cynical exploitative group of people. After five years of hell, my wife helped me complete a form to join the police,and I can say that I have never worked with a better bunch of people. They are in the main pragmatic, put upon but in the vast majority all are trying to make things a little better, oh and I got this wonderful gold lined pension? Except it isn't as simple as that, because there a few conditions attached to it, like 12.5% of your pay, long long hours, working weekends, bank holidays, recalls to work and associated things like hate, fear, stress etc. But that was my choice and I wouldn't have changed a thing. But the one thing retiring has allowed me to do is realise that I have never ever changed my views of this country and its people, and that is they deserve better leaders, and deserve better treatment because they are in the main very decent people. So if that is a right wing view then I am very proud of it.What I can say is that the unedifying sight of the left wing/labour supporters, screaming and crying how the outers are stupid and ill educated and lied to, just makes me know I did the correct thing. The latest label is 'white trash' now that's a mature label to stick on someone, and to be honest I like it, because yes I am white, and I do like base entertainments,but it also means that I am perhaps more in tune with the rest of the trash, and perhaps have never risen from the roots I was born from.
      One sad aside, mooted in the Guardian is the argument that because people like me never went to a university we are somehow not up to the understanding of how democracy works, now talk about kettle and pot eh? However the frightening thing is that the government have decided that to be in the police one should have a degree because apparently criminals are too smart for the average ill educated would be cop, so it must follow that you're hated Tories are more in tune with your beloved Labour supporters ?
      Oh and by the way I class myself as a true patriot and actually had, dare I say it English flags on my car until we crashed out of the football, shocking isnt it.

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    3. Robbie- you had no need to justify yourself to me. Equally You had no need to patronise me either. (Why should I be what ?
      You don't have to convince me that ALL politicians are a cynical exploitative bunch of bastards I also have been there.
      As it happens- if I've been wrong about you you are equally guilty- I'm not nor have ever been a Labour supporter- the current unedifying embroglio makes the impossible even less likely. I view myself as a liberal(small l) and in the USA I was referred to as a "free-thinker" - meant as an insult by a republican but taken rather as a badge of honour.
      My sometime wariness of the police comes of an attempted fit up for robbery by a copper from Chester - le Street in 1991. the whole story is so incedible that had I not been there I would not have believed it and it is too long to type out but ended up involving the Home Secretaries Office and just possibly MI5
      This just makes me wary- most coppers are as you describe- I've known enough of them but they do tend towards the Right- after all Thatcher paid them enough.

      I really object to you tarring me with the Gruaniads brush. I never used the term white trash and repeat never called you racist.You seem to have taken this very personally which frankly I don't understand. Equally I never attacked your education or your past or the colour of your skin. I might have- if I'd known have had a go at your following of soccer but I don't give a toss about such a bunch of pathetic overpaid pillocks.

      Now if you want to make this a row- fine I don't tend to back down from a fight but I'm dammed if I'm going to be accused of saying things I did not

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    4. Andy,
      Im not going to fall out with you and I will ignore the threat, because frankly the thought of two overweight guys trading punches at a wargames show would be too embarrassing to live down, so I will tell you what, we will agree to differ, and leave it at that. However if you dont think that's okay, well then fill your boots. By the way I was arrested twice by the police in the 1970's, I found the whole experience interesting, but then I was a bit of a hippie back then.

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    5. Robbie- the "fight" of course was metaphorical and verbal and once again you jump to extremes. I'm not threatening but neither will I be accused or patronised both of which you have done in your various posts here.
      Politically we can agree to differ no problem- we were politically far apart anyway even before this mess so it matters little
      Since I'm unlikely to get an apology the so be it. Goodbye.

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  11. Robbie - they should have had you writing their literature because that is far an away more coherent than most of the bolleaux that was trotted out... it wouldn't have changed my mind, but well argued.... :o)

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  12. Thank you Steve, I am taking a Creative Writing course as it happens.

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    1. I used to do that for a living ;-)

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  13. 1 - surely the point of a 'union' is that everyone tries to keep to a common set of rules, not separate deals. What did people's MEPs say when they raised their concerns about the EUs actions, the MEPs being their democratically elected representatives to the parliament which approves or not EU legislation and appoints and can dismiss 'those in control', the President and Council ?
    2 - 'Project Fear', warning about financial uncertainty, rising prices and increased risk of conflict resulting from a fragmented Europe; with the markets doing so well, the Pound dropped and NATO deploying troops to the Baltics to try and face down Putin; its good they were just scare tactics.
    3 - Fair point, no attempt was made to explain. They could have mentioned the benefits of access to a market to over 500 million, the opportunities to work, live and interact across 28 different countries and cultures, the EUs funding of redevelopment and infrastructure across all parts of the UK, the EUs support for farmers, including small and Hill farmers, etc, etc. But you are right, they didn't mention any of it.
    4 - According to the BBC quoting HM Treasury, in 2014 we were to contribute £361m/week but were rebated to reduce this to £276m/week, with EU funding totalling £114m/week coming back leaving the UK paying in £161m/week and, according to the ONS, our contribution in 2014 had fallen from that of 2013. They also list our per capita payment to the EU in 2011 as £128
    5 - UK population is currently rising at a similar rate, looking at population graphs, to that between the 1950s and 1970s, there having been a slight slow down in the 1980s - 1990s. There was a spike in population GROWTH around 2010 but there has not been a huge population increase across the UK, locally may be another matter, however, If the UK government doesn't include service provision in its housing plans, that is an issue that way predates any EU population movement, perhaps we could have sought EU funding with this sort of infrastructure.
    I had thought that Munich was the heartland of National Socialism, not the EU

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    1. Andrew- As it happens I saw plenty of worried farmers concerned about losing subsidies, access to markets, and of course workers- Go to parts of Yorkshire and especially Lincolnshire ad see how many farmers rely on migrant workers. Several of these on TV noted that they had tried to get local workers but that appeals to the Job centre had been unavailing- I suppose its easier to lie on your arse than pick fruit. Yet its a fair bet that some of these are the same pillocks who are moaning about "immigrants taking our jobs"and daubing nasty slogans on Polish Cultural centres etc.

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    2. Sorry Big Andy, meant to be a reply to Robbie's points but obviously I need to work on my IT skills a bit more !

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    3. No worries Andrew- your comments vey cogent and to the point.

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    4. Andrew,
      Like you I believed that the democratically elected MEP'S played a big part in the governance of the EU, however after watching several programmes on what they actually did, or didnt do, it was obvious that all they do is rubber stamp the legislation that is created. One of my friends is a EU adviser creating building legislation which is initiated by powerful business lobby's and other interested parties,this is then passed by the MEPS without debate. Surprisingly all the delegates meet twice a year in NORTHERN CYPRUS, that well known EU country.
      As regards my mentioning of Munich, which is the base for BMW etc, it is the city held up as a shining example of all that is good in the EU,and the people who live there are very pro EU, but dont let that get in the way of a smart remark.

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  14. Lick the boots of your Germano-Belgian masters.

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  15. More thoughts- According to the BBC- the EU actually has fewer Civil servants than the UK- so which is the more swollen buerocracy.
    I agree completely that Cameron did this for party political reasons- no change there in any politicians behaviour Party before country always-
    If I was a fisherman I'd have been an outie. and entirely see Phil Robinsons point about food standards- these were 2 good reasons for voting out but alone were not enough. There was something of an expectation amongst the outies that the EU would fall over themselves to do business with us. Why should they- they are in a stronger position that we but equally both parties still need each other- the German chairman of the BDI has said a tarriff war is unthinkable but there is no doubt that we have pissed off an awful lot of people and that will cost us.
    It was a case of 2 bad choices - one of which was least bad as it cave continuity and stability.
    Well you voted for confusion and turmoil and you now have it.
    What has this exercise achieved? Quite possibly the end of the UK.

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  16. Purely in the interests of some much needed humour - and with no ulterior motives whatsoever - the following is offered as a much needed chuckle... I almost spat my Spam sandwich out when I watched it...... :o)) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ&feature=youtu.be

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  17. Steve Bloody hell man I nearly choked Tea all over the floor.... I'll just nip off to change my keks ....

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  18. After some thought, I thought I might as well as my tuppence/centime/pfennig to the topic.
    I voted Remain, for pretty simple reasons, the main one being stability. In 2016, we are so intertwined with Europe and the rest of the global economy that was it really a surprise when the markets had a fit on Friday? Or Monday for that matter? Thankfully, things have calmed down a bit, atleast until there is either bad economic news (inflation being the biggie, which given the drop in the pound is going to hit petrol prices sooner rather than later), a general election is called (markets don't like uncertainty, and given both major political parties hissie fits at present, uncertainty is what that would offer) or someone actually triggers Article 50, in which case it's two years and counting.
    Both sides campaigned badly, there is no other description for it. Neither side went with positives for their arguments, Leave had some seriously crap maths and Remain had George Osborne's massively idiotic emergency budget announcement. Still, it ended the way it did and that's what we have to live with.
    Now, several years ago, Northern Rock revealed it was rather crap at it's job and, one thing leading to another, caused a bit of a kerfuffle. During that fallout, my job (not at NR, btw), was under threat three years running. Fortunately times improved. Now, with the out vote, I am fearful for my job again. Best case is that we muddle through the next few years. Worst case, I'm out of a job by Christmas. Hyperbole? Unless you have been inside looking out as the system falters, you have no idea.
    A closing thought: The referendum vote was akin to playing russian roulette with a fully loaded revolver. Whatever happened, there'd be a mess to clear up afterwards...

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    1. We'd all better know where the mops and buckets are kept then.

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    2. That being the problem, nobody seems to know there is a mess yet, never mind how to clean it up...

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  19. I live in Grimsby the place the EU trained on whilst readying itself for destroying the lives of young people in Southern Europe
    Guess where I put my cross?
    The only way we will know what the right answer was is to revisit this in a decade./ lifetime! Meanwhile l shall continue to play with my toys.Keep calm and Carry on chaps.

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  20. Dave your last point is very true. However in the short term- even in the last week the Brexit vote has already cost me at least a grand due to the nosedive of the pound. Unless the pound recovers- weventually prices WILL rise and infaltion with them.
    Besides that the posturing politicos are all just wasting our time - whichever side they claim to be on.

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  21. There is no guarantee if we had stayed in that your costs would not have worsened anyway.The Euro problems with Greece,Italy and the southern member states is not resolved by a long shot, and the fact that so many countries want a referendum implies a lack of commitment to the whole sorry project.My view is leave now and take the hit, then we will be better prepared for the coming meltdown which WILL happen. The pound will then be seen as the safe bet not the euro.The stock market is already recovering quicker here than in mainland Europe.
    If 27 of you go for a drink and only 5 buy the drinks how long would you stay in that particular drinking club if you are one of the 5 ? Enough is enough unless there is a German with deep pockets then mines a pint!

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  22. Dave I see your point - but that is from the view of a comaparatively safe job ? I'm not that bothered about the pound/euro exchange rate but the pound/dollar rate is the one to watch .
    Fuel will go up- as it is costed in US dollars- and that impacts on everything. Raw material prices will increase- as they are mostly costed in US dollars.
    That there is likely to be more Euro - bother is unarguable- the UK supplied approx 10-15% of the EU budget but I'm still not convinced that running scared is the best idea.
    However so far only yourself and Phil Robinson (on Steve the Wargamers blog) have provided anything like cogent arguments for Brexit. The Euro-rot set in with the Euro- but we thankfully kept out of that.
    America is not in the drinking club- it merely holds the lease on the pub! I've known more than a few in my time who kept their hands out of their pockets when it was their shout ! Fortunately they were in a minority ....

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  23. Hi Andy no Ive got my own business and have a number of clients from Europe so it will affect me directly. I take your point on the dollar rate, but having lived through a 3 day week an oil crisis or two a war or three and Agadoo getting in the charts I have seen exchange issues before. Love your continuation of the drinking analogy! Hope things get better for you soon

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    1. Dave Like you I've seen a good bit- too young to work during the 3 day week but did my O levels in the dark! but never an exchange rate this low in all the time I've been in business. The rate is not affecting sales but by God it may affect prices and it has already affected the bottom line for this year.

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  24. I am sure you have considered this, but can't you cast them under licence in the Uk?
    Probably too expensive to consider or requires too much trust between the parties involved? Or too much elf n safety ?

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    1. Yes we have considered it several times over the years but it is simply too expensive. Even assuming a small licence fee prices would still almost double mainly due to the huge price of premises and business rates and all other assorted government shyte that you will be aware of.

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  25. and interestingly, not one of the 'pro' leavers has really commentated on what I took to be your main original point (that of instinctive, knee-jerk, primal, bigotry).
    Not one suggestion of a tinge of regret regarding the rise in hate-crimes and all that ... jazz.

    Really, for me that says it all - much more than all the largely uncertain economic debatative to-ing and fro-ing.
    In 2016 a vote of this importance and magnitude has largely been decided by racism - always self-defeating at the best of times (I mean, wargamers are meant to be interested in history, right? Don't seem to have learnt much from it, do they?).
    Shocking - at a time with so much mindless hatefulness abroad in the world: a simple truism - 'two wrongs don't make a right' (but of course, has done, politically speaking).

    Marc

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    1. Can't argue with that- not that I'd want to......

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  26. Seems a strange jump to assume all 17million out ers are racists, it just didn't figure in my decision which was based on what I thought was best for me my family and my grandkids, Grimsby voted out by a big margin and has had a large Polish community since the 1940's when the Carpathian Lancers came and stayed after our post war betrayal of the free Polish forces.,we have had no reports of problems and it seems sadly it is Eastern Europeans who are reporting such incidents which anyone who has any decency abhors
    What does seem odd a lot of these incidents appear to be in areas that voted remain?
    The people who are full of bile have been out there all the time may be the press coverage of these horrible events will empower the victims to report them to the police I know when We reported a hate crime myself and another disabled guy suffered recently at a club We used to be members of the Police were really good and issued a warning letter that stopped the actions of these morons very quickly.
    So if you want my condemnation as an outer of any hate crimes you perceive were caused by the vote you've got it! I've been a victim and it is horrible.

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